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It is too soon to know if the Houston area will be affected. There have been eight named storms in the Atlantic Hurricane Season. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting 15 to 21 named storms this year. After this we will switch over to a new list of names, starting with A again for the first time. Unlike the Greek alphabeth we used earlier, these names can be retired if necessary.
Back to Wanda, this storm in the middle of the Atlantic, was a Nor'easter on the east coast of the US a few days ago. It should not be any threat to land. Will this be the last one? Maybe not, there is a new invest far in the Atlantic that has a 30 percent chance of becoming something. Even if, it will have turned north well before it reaches us. Happy Halloween! This is due to a lack of instability in the Atlantic, a Saharan Dust season lasting longer than expected, volcanic ash from the La Palma volcanic eruption contributing to the excess of dry air expected, and wind shear which is stronger than projected by a long shot.
The wide mess north of the DR stretching from Puerto Rico to eastern Cuba is courtesy of an upper level low centered over Cuba and is not expected to develop due mainly to high wind shear. It did however create some moderate turbulence on my flight this morning from Miami to St. The tail end of this trough stretches to Panama and Columbia where down the road a few models show possible development.
At least for now. Dry air had a modest role in 93L's lack of development and timely demise but again, high wind shear basically tore it apart as it made its way towards the northern Antilles and Puerto Rico. We are lucky with this one as on it's projected path and potential development without wind shear, we probably would be staring a Cat 2 or 3 hurricane in the eye from Dominica northward to Puerto Rico.
As it remains, it is still a strong system with plenty of rain, Tstorms, gusty winds and rough seas to offer the islands. I watched tstorms over the BVI's earlier with a decent amount of lightning but the bulk will come this way overnight and into tomorrow. Off to the east a few later in the season waves are crossing the MDR with the one near 48W showing some promise but the north end of the wave is eating dust which is killing the rest of it from showing promise and the one around 27W has not caught any attention from the models or the NHC.
On a Pacific note, tropical storm Pamela definitely has not lived up to her potential which is good news for Mexico but expected to create flooding problems in Texas after landfall, maybe as a hurricane tomorrow morning. Once again, dry air ingestion was her main demise as she had everything else going for her.
Stay safe, vigilant and prepared. We still have a ways to go. However, both can still produce bad weather for us. The closest one is currently over the Dominican Republic and Haiti and will cause some locally heavy rainfall in the area.
The second one is about miles to the east of us and also cause some gusty weather over the Lesser Antilles over the next day or so. The wave is spreading over a pretty large area, so gusty conditions and rainfall will be widespread. There are two more waves further out in the Atlantic. The one closest to us half way is not expected to become anything, and the other one just rolled off Africa.
We'll see what happens with that one Good afternoon, After an interesting September watching long lived, slo-mo major hurricane Sam who gave the Caribbean a scare, the US East coast a blink of the eye, and Bermuda the brush off, the tropics have "chilled out" for the moment. The remnants of 91L still slowly move west through the central Atlantic and should bring some needed rains to the Windward Islands having avoided short lived TS Victor's tentacles, whose demise was accurately forecast even if his eventual strength was not.
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